[Massplanners] Housing Production vs. School Enrollment

[DAVID ROBBINS]

Last year, I did a fairly detailed analysis in attempt to answer the following question, specifically for my town (Grafton):

Q: If new residential development adds more in school expenses than the property tax revenue it generates, by how much does the added expense increase the property taxes of existing households?

The detailed results are specific to Grafton’s situation, but the following points are particularly notable, and might apply more or less to other towns:

* The common perception by the public is that every new student adds to the school budget an amount equal to the town’s per-pupil expenditure. This perception bears essentially no relationship to the truth.
* A single development is highly unlikely to increase the school budget, as a modest number of new students can always be accommodated within the school system’s existing capacity. (Other responses have noted this.)
* The impact of development on expenses (school and otherwise) becomes meaningful only when development is considered on a large scale over a long time (I added up all the potential development from now through the currently projected maximum buildout, likely to take 40 or more years to achieve).
* A dwelling unit will contribute students to the school system for a finite period of time: a student is in the system for generally no more than 13 years.
* Census data can show the town-wide average number of students per dwelling unit over time; in Grafton’s case, we have averaged 0.4 students per dwelling unit for at least the past 30 years.
* Census data can show what percentage of dwelling units include school-age children: in Grafton’s case, that has historically been around 36%, again consistently for at least 30 years.
* The analysis must take into account the school funding sources other than property tax (mainly Chapter 70) and the share of property tax that is allocated to schools.
* The long term impact must consider expansion of school capacity, not just annual operating expenses.
* And of course it’s really hard to predict future trends in state aid and school expense increases.

The bottom line in our case is that over the long term, with maximum growth, and no improvement in state aid, the property tax impact of new development is minimal.

As noted, I was focused strictly on property taxes for school expenses. The UMass Dartmouth study that other responses have mentioned takes a broader look at local and state revenues and expenses, but reaches a similar conclusion.

Take this for whatever it’s worth. :-)

Dave Robbins
Grafton Planning Board

> On Jun 7, 2021, at 11:09 AM, Leeann Bradley <bradleyl at middleborough.com> wrote:
> 
> Good Morning,
>  
> Looking for information on housing production v. school enrollment.  I have MAPC’s October 2017 research brief with metrics but wondering if there is anything a bit more recent.  Middleborough is now an MBTA community with a new train station under construction.  We are TRYING to implement a 40R overlay surrounding the train station but are having enormous pushback with regard to a perceived explosion of children in the school system.  Thank you so much.
>  
> Leeann 
>  
> Leeann Bradley
> Town Planner
> Town Hall Annex
> 20 Center Street
> Middleborough, MA 02346
> 508-946-2425 ext. 1150
>  
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