<html><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=utf-8"></head><body style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class=""><div dir="auto" style="word-wrap: break-word; -webkit-nbsp-mode: space; line-break: after-white-space;" class="">Last year, I did a fairly detailed analysis in attempt to answer the following question, specifically for my town (Grafton):<div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Q: If new residential development adds more in school expenses than the property tax revenue it generates, by how much does the added expense increase the property taxes of existing households?<br class=""><br class="">The detailed results are specific to Grafton’s situation, but the following points are particularly notable, and might apply more or less to other towns:</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">* The common perception by the public is that every new student adds to the school budget an amount equal to the town’s per-pupil expenditure. This perception bears essentially no relationship to the truth.</div><div class="">* A single development is highly unlikely to increase the school budget, as a modest number of new students can always be accommodated within the school system’s existing capacity. (Other responses have noted this.)</div><div class="">* The impact of development on expenses (school and otherwise) becomes meaningful only when development is considered on a large scale over a long time (I added up all the potential development from now through the currently projected maximum buildout, likely to take 40 or more years to achieve).</div><div class="">* A dwelling unit will contribute students to the school system for a finite period of time: a student is in the system for generally no more than 13 years.</div><div class="">* Census data can show the town-wide average number of students per dwelling unit over time; in Grafton’s case, we have averaged 0.4 students per dwelling unit for at least the past 30 years.</div><div class="">* Census data can show what percentage of dwelling units include school-age children: in Grafton’s case, that has historically been around 36%, again consistently for at least 30 years.</div><div class="">* The analysis must take into account the school funding sources other than property tax (mainly Chapter 70) and the share of property tax that is allocated to schools.</div><div class="">* The long term impact must consider expansion of school capacity, not just annual operating expenses.</div><div class="">* And of course it’s really hard to predict future trends in state aid and school expense increases.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">The bottom line in our case is that over the long term, with maximum growth, and no improvement in state aid, the property tax impact of new development is minimal.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">As noted, I was focused strictly on property taxes for school expenses. The UMass Dartmouth study that other responses have mentioned takes a broader look at local and state revenues and expenses, but reaches a similar conclusion.</div><div class=""><br class=""></div><div class="">Take this for whatever it’s worth. :-)<br class=""><div><br class=""></div><div>Dave Robbins</div><div>Grafton Planning Board</div><div><br class=""><blockquote type="cite" class=""><div class="">On Jun 7, 2021, at 11:09 AM, Leeann Bradley <<a href="mailto:bradleyl@middleborough.com" class="">bradleyl@middleborough.com</a>> wrote:</div><br class="Apple-interchange-newline"><div class=""><div class="WordSection1" style="page: WordSection1; caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;"><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Good Morning,<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Looking for information on housing production v. school enrollment. I have MAPC’s October 2017 research brief with metrics but wondering if there is anything a bit more recent. Middleborough is now an MBTA community with a new train station under construction. We are TRYING to implement a 40R overlay surrounding the train station but are having enormous pushback with regard to a perceived explosion of children in the school system. Thank you so much.<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Leeann<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span><o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Leeann Bradley<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Town Planner<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Town Hall Annex<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">20 Center Street<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">Middleborough, MA 02346<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class="">508-946-2425 ext. 1150<o:p class=""></o:p></div><div style="margin: 0in 0in 0.0001pt; font-size: 11pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif;" class=""><o:p class=""> </o:p></div></div><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">When responding, please be aware that the Massachusetts Secretary of State has determined that most email is public record and therefore cannot be kept confidential. --<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><span style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none; float: none; display: inline !important;" class="">MassPlanners mailing list</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><a href="mailto:MassPlanners@masscptc.org" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114); text-decoration: underline; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class="">MassPlanners@masscptc.org</a><br style="caret-color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; text-decoration: none;" class=""><a href="http://masscptc.org/mailman/listinfo/massplanners_masscptc.org" style="color: rgb(149, 79, 114); text-decoration: underline; font-family: Helvetica; font-size: 12px; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: start; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px; -webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px;" class="">http://masscptc.org/mailman/listinfo/massplanners_masscptc.org</a></div></blockquote></div><br class=""></div></div></body></html>